Tropical storm watch: a potential hurricane could bring heavy rain to Big Bear over Labor Day weekend

A tropical system off Mexico's coast has a 90% chance of becoming a hurricane, and forecasters say even a weakened storm could dump significant rainfall on the San Bernardino Mountains.

A tropical storm brewing off Mexico's southern coast could strengthen into a hurricane as early as Sunday or Monday — right in the middle of Labor Day weekend — according to National Weather Service meteorologist Sebastian Westerink in San Diego[1]. As of Monday morning, August 31, the storm's track remains uncertain, meaning Big Bear Valley residents heading into one of the busiest weekends of the year should keep a close eye on forecasts[1].

What could happen here

The outcome for Big Bear depends heavily on which way the storm turns. If it tracks west, it would weaken over cooler Pacific waters and Southern California might see little more than added humidity and cloudiness[1]. If it continues north, it could hold hurricane strength briefly before cooling ocean temperatures near northern Baja — which fall below the 80°F needed to sustain a hurricane — begin to weaken it[1].

A direct hurricane landfall in Southern California has never happened in recorded history, Westerink noted[1]. But that's not the only threat worth watching. Hurricane Hilary in 2023 had already weakened to a post-tropical system before it crossed into California — yet it still delivered unprecedented rainfall to parts of Southern California, including desert cities in the Coachella Valley[1]. NOAA has cautioned that even indirect tropical impacts can be significant, particularly when it comes to rainfall[1].

For a mountain community like Big Bear, where steep terrain and burn-scar areas can amplify runoff during heavy rain events, any tropical moisture deserves attention — even from a storm that never technically "arrives."

What to watch

Local fire officials and county emergency management had not issued public guidance as of this report. Big Bear News will update this story as the forecast develops.

Residents and visitors planning to be in the mountains this Labor Day weekend should monitor the National Weather Service at weather.gov and check back here for local updates. If warnings or watches are issued for the San Bernardino Mountains, heed them promptly.